03/28/22

Putin’s next step?

Putin may have thought taking Ukraine would be an easy task. He was wrong. Ukrainian resistance has been fierce. How long can the Ukrainian forces hold back the Russian force is a guess.

From a resources point of view, Russia has the advantage unless Western governments send weapons to Ukrainian, they will likely lose a war of attrition. But I don’t believe Putin can hold back much longer, regardless of Western promises of resources and assistance.

Russian losses have been heavy. Putin does not want to lose domestic support (although, looks like he may not have widespread support among the Russian domestic public), and will have to act decisively to complete his goal while minimizing more damage to his war machine.

I believe he will greatly increase his attacks, probably within the next 1-2 weeks.